SHCOMP Bottom in October 2018

On October 19, the SHCOMP declined to 2449.20, the lowest level in four years. On October 20, we made the following comment and forecast:

Since the 5178.18 June 2015 multi-year high, the SHCOMP has declined more than 50%. The SHCOMP relative to the U.S. is the most oversold in twenty years. In the past, when China is extremely oversold relative to the U.S., EM equities bottom and start to rally, outperforming the U.S., during their respective bounce. If today’s forecast is correct, the SHCOMP bottomed at 2449.20 and should now rally more than 40%. The SHCOMP is starting wave (C) of [2] up. The upside target for wave (C) of [2] is 3600.